Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers and catchers report in about three weeks, and it seems more likely by the day that general manager Mike Hazen’s offseason work is finished.
Of course, we can’t rule out a blockbuster deal with rumors still swirling about Arizona’s interest in Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant and Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Starling Marte. However, the cost of either player is reportedly very high, and it is time to consider the possibility that the D-backs have made their final move of the winter.
Here is a complete list of the D-backs’ offseason transactions to date:
- Signed C Stephen Vogt to a one-year, $3 million contract with a vesting option for 2021
- Non-tendered RHP Taijuan Walker and OF Steven Souza Jr.
- Signed RHP Junior Guerra to a one-year, $2.55 million contract with a team option for 2021
- Signed LHP Madison Bumgarner to a five-year, $85 million contract
- Signed OF Kole Calhoun to a two-year, $16 million contract with a team option for 2022
- Signed RHP Hector Rondon to a one-year, $3 million contract with a team option for 2021
- Signed OF David Peralta to a three-year, $22 million extension through 2022
- Traded RHP Matt Andriese to the Los Angeles Angels for RHP Jeremy Beasley
In summary, the D-backs have added a backup catcher (Vogt), a pair of relievers (Guerra and Rondon), a starting right fielder (Calhoun), and a frontline starting pitcher (Bumgarner). Arizona finished last season with a record of 85-77, missing the playoffs by just four games. Have they closed the gap? Unfortunately, the numbers say they probably haven’t.
Vogt will form a dynamic platoon with Carson Kelly, but he was worth just 0.9 fWAR last season over 99 games. Considering that former D-backs catcher Alex Avila produced 1.3 fWAR last year, Arizona probably hasn’t moved the needle behind the plate.
In the bullpen, Guerra and Rondon give the D-backs a pair of stable righties. With the likes of T.J. McFarland, Yoshi Hirano and Matt Andriese now in the rearview mirror, Guerra and Rondon appear to be an upgrade. However, despite Guerra’s 3.55 ERA and Rondon’s 3.71 ERA last year, they were only worth a combined 0.1 fWAR. The 2020 bullpen looks better on paper and it really might be, but we probably can’t count on a significant upgrade here either.
This brings us to the addition of Calhoun. He is probably the D-backs’ most likely shot at a genuine upgrade in 2020. Calhoun is coming off a 2.5 fWAR season in which he launched 33 home runs and posted a 108 wRC+, all while being well-regarded defensively.
Former Diamondback Adam Jones took most of the reps in right field last season, posting 0.1 fWAR with 16 homers and an 87 wRC+. Calhoun is certainly an upgrade. Steamer projects Calhoun for only 1.3 fWAR in 2020, though, so the D-backs are probably only getting an extra win or two here.
Finally, we have the surprise signing of Bumgarner. The three-time World Series champion is coming off a 3.2 fWAR season in which he tossed 207.2 innings with a 3.90 ERA over 34 starts. Bumgarner isn’t what he once was, but he still brings much-needed stability to a rotation with many questions.
Nonetheless, don’t forget that the D-backs’ 85 wins from last year include the contributions of Zack Greinke’s 23 starts before he got traded. With that in mind, the addition of Bumgarner is probably more a cushion to the blow of losing Greinke than a significant upgrade.
Whether or not the D-backs’ rotation is better in 2020 depends heavily on the durability and performance of Luke Weaver and Zac Gallen. The group’s ceiling is incredibly high, but the floor is also fairly low with injuries (Weaver), lack of experience (Gallen), and aging (Bumgarner and Mike Leake) all posing real concerns.
Ultimately, the D-backs’ current roster looks to be better than last year’s, but not by much. When we factor in that Ketel Marte and Eduardo Escobar probably won’t combine for 10.8 fWAR again like they did last year, Arizona’s chance of closing the gap to the playoffs is not great.
The D-backs will be competitive, though, and what’s beautiful about baseball is that competitive teams can go really far. Just ask the 2019 World Series champion Washington Nationals, who turned a humble Wild Card appearance into a parade on the National Mall.
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