According to Google’s lovely built-in dictionary, an X-factor is “a variable in a given situation that could have the most significant impact on the outcome.”
In this case, then, we are essentially left to answer this question: If the D-backs were still playing late into October, who was responsible?
Here are my top five, in alphabetical order.
Archie Bradley, RP
As we’ve seen time and time again, it’s very difficult to compete in October without a bullpen ace. Given the unlikelihood that the D-backs spend big on a top-notch reliever this trade deadline, Archie Bradley is a clear X-factor for the club in 2020.
Since dealing with a fingernail issue in 2018 that hampered his ability to throw his curveball, the D-backs’ hard-throwing reliever just hasn’t been the same. He threw it more last year, but it didn’t have the same shape as it did in his breakout 2017 campaign.
Speaking of 2017, we can’t forget that Bradley posted a 1.73 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .205 opponent batting average that year — and unsurprisingly, the D-backs also happened to make their first playoff appearance in six years largely because of him.
Zac Gallen, SP
Zac Gallen’s combination of fastball velocity, effective breaking pitches and above-average command have made him easy to dream on. Given his 2.81 ERA, 96 strikeouts and .212 opponent average in 80 MLB innings last year, it’s only gotten easier since he broke into the Majors.
Gallen might have the highest ceiling of any D-backs starter, and that alone puts him on this list. The D-backs’ rotation is loaded with potential, but the reality is that probably not all of them will hit their ceiling in the same year.
I sure hope Gallen does…
Jake Lamb, 3B/1B
As I discussed in my last piece, Jake Lamb is only two seasons removed from an All-Star worthy first half that saw him post a .279/.376/.546 line with 20 homers and 67 RBI.
We’re not expecting anything like that from Lamb after he posted an 80 wRC+ last year, but that’s exactly why he’s on this list. If Lamb can get back to his 2017 self, the 2020 D-backs would receive a substantial boost.
Also, while actions speak louder than words, Lamb is saying all the right things entering Spring Training.
“It’s pretty simple: I’m looking to win a starting job,” Lamb told MLB.com writer Steve Gilbert. “But if not, I’m going to be the best bench player in the league and then earn a starting job. That’s how I see it.”
Ketel Marte, 2B/CF
In my mind, best players are always X-factors. Even if they’re as consistent as Paul Goldschmidt when he was in Arizona and there’s no reason to think they won’t replicate their historic level of performance, you still need them to be at their best to truly have hope of making a playoff run.
Ketel Marte has cemented himself as the best player on this team, and I don’t think it’s close. He may never post 7.1 fWAR in a season again, but Marte is young enough at 26 years old that we shouldn’t be calling that a fluke just yet.
Robbie Ray, SP
Robbie Ray has been turning heads since his arrival in the desert back in 2015. Granted, maybe some of those heads turned because fans wanted to look at anything but the field when Ray walked a fourth consecutive batter or need 37 pitches to get out of the first inning.
Amid the good, bad and ugly of the D-backs’ south paw, Ray’s ceiling has always been incredibly high, as evidenced by a breakout 2017 campaign that saw him post a 2.89 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 218 strikeouts over 162 innings. We can’t forget that it was Ray, not fellow 2017 ace Zack Greinke, who starred on the mound in the 2017 National League Wild Card game against the Colorado Rockies.
Ray, when on his game, is downright un-hittable. Unfortunately, his velocity dipped significantly last year, leading to a relatively poor 4.34 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. Still, his ceiling is high at 28 years old, particularly in a contract year.
As you’ve probably noticed throughout this article, several players on that 2017 team had breakout seasons at the same time, and that’s no surprise. Given where the D-backs stand right now and the stark competition in the National League, I suspect it will take a similar year of overlapping breakouts to push the Sedona Red back in the playoffs. Even if all five of the players I’ve discussed perform at their best, the D-backs will still need numerous contributions from the rest of the roster.
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